Housing Market

Zillow’s September market report shows newly pending sales down 8.5% year over year with the 30-year mortgage rate at 7.28%, while the typical U.S. rent rose 2.7% — the fastest annual pace since April 2025.

Realtor.com projects baby boomers and the Silent Generation will release 13.9 million owner-occupied homes between 2026 and 2036, a 74% jump over the prior decade. Only about 380,000 are starter homes, and the firm says the handoff will not move entry-level affordability.

Deductibles and coverage limits leave households responsible for 29% of expected property losses, and lower-FICO policyholders and homes facing the worst tail risk retain the most, two economists find in a New York Fed post.

OIRA received Treasury’s proposed rule implementing the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act’s ban on large institutional investor purchases of single-family homes on Oct. 2. The prohibition itself takes effect Jan. 7, 2027.

Payroll growth nearly stopped in September and July and August were revised 60,000 lower, yet the 30-year mortgage rate jumped 25 basis points to 7.28%. Plus a RealPage injunction in New York, a Senate bill on agents’ status and data centers running 73% ahead.

September payrolls rose 29,000, below the prior year’s monthly average, and revisions erased 60,000 jobs from July and August. Construction’s 11,000 gain came entirely from nonresidential work.

ATTOM’s Q2 2026 flipping report found a typical gross profit of $60,526 and a 21.5% margin, down from 27.6% a year earlier, with San Antonio flips posting a small loss.

Realtor.com’s September report put price reductions on 20.8% of active listings, the highest share for the month since 2018, and brought the supply of homes for sale to within 9.1% of pre-pandemic norms — while pending sales fell 4.1% year over year.

The Conference Board’s index dropped to 81.9 from 88.6 in August, and consumers’ assessment of their family’s current finances turned negative for only the second time in four years. Plans to buy a home slipped to 5.4%.

Gov. Gavin Newsom signed 222 bills on Sept. 27, including new nonrenewal notice requirements, expanded replacement-cost coverage and FAIR Plan penalties — while vetoing two bills that would have forced insurers to explain and pay claims faster.

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller national index rose 1.9% in the year through July, up from 1.6% in June, but home values fell in real terms for a 14th straight month. FHFA’s separate index rose 2.6%.

First American’s August index has U.S. prices up 1.4% year over year, with Chicago gaining 5.5% and Dallas losing 5.0% — a 10.5-point spread between the strongest and weakest large metros.

A Form 4 filed Sept. 25 shows Berkshire Hathaway bought another 1.68 million Lennar shares for roughly $136 million, extending a six-session buying run worth about $349 million that began the day after the builder’s third-quarter miss.

Two July home price indexes land Tuesday and the September jobs report closes the week Friday, with construction spending and the weekly rate surveys in between. No FOMC meeting, and no NAR or Census housing releases until Oct. 20.

The 30-year mortgage crossed 7% this week. New-home sales hit a 2026 high only because builders cut prices 8.8%, apartment starts kept shrinking, and capital kept concentrating in AI infrastructure.

A U.S. Conference of Mayors survey of 113 mayors found 96% blaming housing costs for the affordability crisis. The group is taking the argument to Albuquerque, Austin, Columbus and Atlanta in October.

New single-family home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 in August, the fastest pace of 2026, while the average sale price fell 8.8% from a year earlier and builders trimmed their stock of finished, unsold houses.

NAHB’s new Remodeling Input Price Index shows nonlabor costs accelerating from 3.9% to 6.6% year over year, while remodeler employment fell 1% and real wages kept declining.

Governor Michael Barr backed the Fed’s Sept. 16 quarter-point increase and said more are likely in his base case, then laid out why U.S. shelter costs are a supply problem rate policy cannot solve.

The Los Angeles builder reported $1.30 billion of revenue and $1.05 in diluted earnings per share for the quarter ended Aug. 31, with gross margin down to 16.5% and net orders off 12% — offset by a rare backlog increase and 8% community count growth.

The land-banking REIT spun off from Lennar launched two $500 million tranches of senior notes on Sept. 22. If Dream Finders’ takeover of Beazer Homes is not completed by May 13, 2027, the 2031 notes face a special mandatory redemption.

Two SEC filings submitted Sept. 21 show Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett crossed the 10 percent reporting threshold at Lennar, after buying 2.7 million additional shares on the three sessions that followed the homebuilder’s weak third-quarter report.

Redfin’s August Home Price Index, released Sept. 22, showed a 0.25% monthly gain and 3.7% annual growth, with San Francisco up 12% and Dallas down 1.4% over the year.

Concrete took 5% of last year’s single-family completions and steel half a percent, leaving nearly every new American house exposed to the same lumber market.

KB Home reports Tuesday, August new home sales land Thursday and Freddie Mac’s survey delivers the first full rate read after the Fed’s hike. What to watch the week of Sept. 21.

The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, mortgage rates jumped to 6.95%, builder confidence hit a one-year low and Lennar cut its delivery target. What changed for housing this week.

Sellers gave buyers concessions in 44.7% of U.S. home sales in August, the highest August share in Redfin’s records, with roughly seven in 10 Atlanta, Charlotte and Phoenix deals including one.