The week of Nov. 9-13 includes the Veterans Day federal holiday on Wednesday, Nov. 11, and two releases that matter for housing. The October consumer price index arrives Tuesday, and the National Association of Realtors reports October existing-home sales on Thursday. Both come after a jobs report strong enough to keep a December Federal Reserve rate hike under discussion.
Tuesday, Nov. 10: October CPI
The Bureau of Labor Statistics schedules the October CPI for 8:30 a.m. Eastern. It is the main inflation reading the Fed will see before its Dec. 8-9 meeting. In September, headline CPI was up 3.7% from a year earlier and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 2.6%, according to figures NAHB cited after the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28. Two officials dissented at that meeting in favor of a hike.
For real estate, watch the shelter component and how the bond market reacts. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield more closely than the Fed’s own rate. A hot reading would add to the pressure from the 165,000-job October payroll gain. A soft one could extend the recent easing in borrowing costs.
Thursday, Nov. 12: Existing-home sales and mortgage rates
NAR’s release schedule puts October existing-home sales at 10 a.m. Eastern. These are closed sales, so they mostly reflect contracts signed in late summer and early fall, when the 30-year mortgage rate crossed 7% for the first time this year. Sales had already fallen below a 4 million annual pace in August. Forward-looking data is weak too: Realtor.com reported the lowest October for contract signings in its records.
Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey normally comes out on Thursdays. Its last reading, on Nov. 5, put the 30-year average at 7.18%, the third straight weekly decline from October’s 7.40% peak. This week’s survey will be the first to reflect the October jobs report.
Also on Thursday, the Census Bureau’s economic indicator calendar lists October Business Formation Statistics at 10 a.m., a measure of new business applications.
Looking further ahead
The following week is heavier on housing data. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index of builder sentiment is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 17, the same morning as Census’s October retail sales report. On Wednesday, Nov. 18, Census publishes October housing starts and building permits at 8:30 a.m., and NAR follows at 10 a.m. with its October pending home sales index.
Taken together, the next two weeks give the first full look at how the housing market handled October’s run-up in rates, from builders’ sentiment to contracts and closings, ahead of the Fed’s Dec. 8-9 meeting. More coverage is on our housing market page.
