Nineteen percent of California households could afford a median-priced single-family home in the third quarter of 2026, according to the California Association of Realtors’ quarterly Housing Affordability Index, released Oct. 30, 2026. That share was unchanged from both the second quarter and a year earlier. Underneath the flat headline number, two forces cancelled each other out: home prices fell and mortgage rates rose.
The statewide median price for an existing single-family home fell 2.3% from the second quarter, to $894,630 from $915,590. It was still 0.7% higher than a year earlier. Over the same period, the effective 30-year fixed mortgage rate used in C.A.R.’s calculations rose to 6.80%, up from 6.54% in the second quarter and 6.67% a year earlier. C.A.R. said that is the highest rate since the second quarter of 2025.
The two moves left the cost of buying unchanged from the second quarter. A buyer of the median-priced house needed a minimum annual household income of $228,000 to cover a monthly payment of $5,700, including principal, interest, taxes and insurance. That income bar is $4,400 higher than a year ago, and the payment is up 2.0% from the third quarter of 2025.
More than twice the national payment
California’s figures stand apart from the national ones. C.A.R. puts the U.S. median-priced home at $432,900, the same third-quarter median the National Association of Realtors reported when it said prices rose in 78% of metros. At that price, the typical monthly payment is $2,760, and 39% of U.S. households could afford it. The required income is $110,400, less than half of California’s.
The association noted that the income needed to buy a typical California home has been above $200,000 in 15 of the past 16 quarters.
Condos gained a little ground
Condominiums and townhomes were the one segment where affordability improved. The statewide median condo or townhome price fell 4.5% from the second quarter and 1.5% from a year ago, to $640,000. The share of households able to buy one rose to 31% from 30%. The minimum qualifying income dropped $3,600 from the second quarter to $163,200, and the monthly payment fell to $4,080.
The coast versus the interior
Across the 53 counties C.A.R. tracks, affordability improved from the second quarter in 24, declined in 21 and was unchanged in eight. Compared with a year ago, it improved in 28 counties, declined in 18 and was flat in seven. The association said moderating prices helped ease some of the pressure from higher borrowing costs in several local markets.
The coastal counties remain the hardest places to buy. Mono County was the least affordable at 8%, followed by Santa Barbara at 12% and Monterey at 13%. San Mateo County had the state’s highest income requirement, $578,400, on a median price of $2.27 million. San Francisco was the only other county above $500,000, at $509,600, with a $2 million median. In San Francisco, 19% of households could afford the median home, down from 23% a year earlier.
In Southern California, Los Angeles County’s affordability slipped to 15% from 17% in the second quarter. Buyers there needed $244,000 in income for a $958,450 median-priced home. Orange County held at 15%, with a $374,400 income requirement, and San Diego County dipped to 16%. C.A.R.’s Los Angeles metro area index improved to 18%, and the Inland Empire rose to 26%. The San Francisco Bay Area index climbed to 24% from 22%.
The most affordable places are in the north and interior of the state. In Lassen County, 61% of households could afford the $220,000 median-priced home, which carries a $1,400 monthly payment and a $56,000 income requirement. Trinity County followed at 43% and Tuolumne at 42%. Lake County posted the biggest year-over-year improvement, a gain of 15 percentage points, according to C.A.R. Plumas County had the largest decline, down eight points to 22%.
What C.A.R. expects next
The association’s outlook is cautious. Its release says that with inflation likely to remain high in the near term, “mortgage rates may not moderate much over the next couple of months.” It added that prices could soften further as the market enters its slow season. C.A.R. noted that the statewide median has historically fallen an average of 1.5% from the third quarter to the fourth. Further price moderation, it said, could offset some of the rate increase and help affordability improve in the coming quarter.
That outlook comes three weeks after the group forecast a 3.7% sales gain in 2027 on a 6.6% mortgage rate; the 6.80% effective rate in this report is above that 2027 assumption. On our reading, the third quarter shows California buyers getting no net relief: lower prices are no longer adding to purchasing power, only keeping it from shrinking as rates rise. More data on state and national markets is on our housing market page.
