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Housing Market

AMH Raises 2026 Outlook as New-Lease Rent Growth Slows to 0.1% in October

AMH lifted its 2026 Core FFO midpoint to $1.97 a share on lower property taxes and steady renewals, but rent growth on new leases slowed to 0.1% in October.

AMH Raises 2026 Outlook as New-Lease Rent Growth Slows to 0.1% in October

AMH, which owns more than 60,000 single-family rental homes across the Southeast, Midwest, Southwest and Mountain West, raised its 2026 earnings outlook on Nov. 4, 2026. Its third-quarter results also showed renters still accepting renewal increases while new-lease pricing has gone essentially flat.

The REIT, known until its rebrand as American Homes 4 Rent, now expects full-year Core funds from operations (FFO) of $1.96 to $1.98 per share. The midpoint of $1.97 is two cents above its previous outlook and would be 5.3% growth over 2025, up from the 4.3% it projected before. Core FFO is the cash-earnings measure REITs use in place of net income.

Rents rise, but mostly on renewals

Rents and other single-family property revenues rose 4.1% from a year earlier to $498.1 million in the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026. Core FFO rose 7.4% to $0.50 per share. Adjusted FFO, which deducts recurring capital spending, rose 7.6% to $0.45.

The leasing detail is where the cooling housing market shows. In its Same-Home portfolio, homes owned and stabilized in both periods, AMH reported blended rent growth of 2.6% in the third quarter. Renewals were up 3.3%, but new leases were up just 1.0%. October was flatter still: renewals again rose 3.3%, and rate growth on new leases slowed to 0.1%. Average occupied days held at 96.0% in both the quarter and October.

In other words, AMH is still raising rents on tenants who stay. It has little room to raise them on homes that turn over. Same-Home core revenues grew 2.3% to $371.1 million. Average monthly realized rent rose 2.4%, partly offset by a 30-basis-point drop in average occupancy. Core property operating expenses in that pool rose 1.8% to $125.2 million, which AMH attributed mainly to higher repairs, maintenance and turnover costs. Same-Home core net operating income (NOI) rose 2.5% to $246.0 million.

Net income attributable to common shareholders fell to $82.3 million, or $0.23 per diluted share, from $99.7 million, or $0.27, a year earlier. The company attributed the decline mainly to lower gains on property sales and lower other income.

“AMH had another strong quarter with balanced execution across the platform and resilient demand,” Chief Executive Bryan Smith said in the release. He credited the company’s “high-quality homes in great locations, superior resident experience supported by our technology and data platform, and outstanding team.”

Lower property taxes helped the outlook

The guidance raise did not come from rents alone. AMH now expects full-year Same-Home core revenue growth of 2.40% at the midpoint, up from 2.25%. It cut its forecast for Same-Home operating expense growth to 1.60% from 2.00%, a change it attributed primarily to lower-than-expected property tax expenses. Its Same-Home core NOI growth midpoint rose to 2.80% from 2.40%. The company also cited solid initial lease-up of newly built homes outside the same-home pool.

Building instead of buying

AMH grows mainly by building homes, not buying them. The company delivered 498 newly built homes through its AMH Development Program in the quarter. Of those, 387 went to its wholly owned portfolio and 111 to unconsolidated joint ventures. It ended September with 60,626 single-family properties, excluding 665 held for sale, plus 4,068 homes held in joint ventures.

Its unchanged 2026 investment plan calls for no wholly owned acquisitions. It expects 1,300 to 1,500 wholly owned development deliveries ($500 million to $600 million) and 400 to 600 joint-venture deliveries, for total gross capital investment of $650 million to $850 million. That reliance on new construction rather than purchases of existing homes matters as Washington moves on large-investor purchases; Treasury’s first rule on the 350-home investor ban has reached the White House for review.

AMH is also pruning. It sold 291 properties in the quarter for $94.0 million in net proceeds and identified 243 more for sale. It used its capital to repurchase and retire 2.4 million Class A shares at a weighted-average $31.39 each, a $75.0 million buyback. Rival Invitation Homes has paired home sales with a buyback of its own this earnings season.

At quarter’s end, AMH had $71.0 million in cash and $5.2 billion of debt. The debt carries a weighted-average interest rate of 4.5% and 7.3 years to maturity, and includes $420.0 million drawn on its $1.25 billion revolving credit line.

Management was scheduled to discuss the results on a conference call at noon Eastern on Nov. 5. More REIT coverage is on our Housing Market page.

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