Only three of the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas were seller’s markets in October, and all three sit in the suburbs of New York and Philadelphia: Nassau County, N.Y., Newark, N.J., and Montgomery County, Pa. That ties the fewest in records going back to 2016, matching April 2020, when the pandemic froze the housing market, according to a Redfin report published Nov. 12.
Everywhere else, the balance has tipped further toward buyers. Redfin estimates there were 70.5% more home sellers than buyers nationwide in October, up from 65.6% in September and the widest gap in its records dating to 2013. Redfin calls it the sixth record-setting month in a row. The company initially put September’s gap at 63%; its revised September figure is 65.6%.
The Northeast holdouts
Redfin defines a seller’s market as one with more than 10% fewer sellers than buyers, and a buyer’s market as one with more than 10% more sellers than buyers. Anything in between is balanced.
Nassau County on Long Island was the strongest seller’s market, with 24.7% fewer sellers than buyers: an estimated 10,921 buyers chasing 8,226 listings. Newark followed at 14.3% fewer sellers, and Montgomery County, outside Philadelphia, at 12.1%.
Even those markets cooled. Nassau’s gap narrowed from 28.3% in September, Newark’s from 17.6% and Montgomery County’s from 20.1%. Milwaukee, a seller’s market in September, slipped to balanced, with sellers and buyers nearly even.
Redfin attributes the holdouts to limited homebuilding that has kept supply tight, combined, in the New York area, with strong demand for homes near a major job center. Prices reflect the difference: home-sale prices rose an average of 3.3% year over year across the three seller’s markets in October, compared with a 0.3% increase across the buyer’s markets, the report says.
“Buyers looking in these pockets of the Northeast should be prepared for a very different experience than buyers elsewhere in the country,” said Redfin Senior Economist Asad Khan. “They may have less room to negotiate, especially on desirable, move-in-ready homes, and could face multiple-offer situations.”
Sun Belt surpluses keep growing
Forty-one of the 50 metros were buyer’s markets, matching September’s record. Miami had the biggest surplus for a third straight month, with 195.8% more sellers than buyers, up from 160.5% in September. Nashville, Tenn. (159.5%) and Las Vegas (149.9%) followed. In the top 13 buyer’s markets, sellers outnumbered buyers more than two to one, and nearly all are in the Sun Belt, including four in Texas and four in Florida.
Redfin ties those surpluses partly to robust homebuilding, with builders adding homes even as demand cools, and says rising HOA and homeowners insurance costs are adding to the squeeze in Florida. The seller surplus grew month over month in 34 of the 41 buyer’s markets. It shrank in seven, including Fort Worth, Texas, St. Louis, Austin, Texas, and Dallas, all of which remain buyer’s markets.
Six metros were balanced: Chicago, Boston, Providence, R.I., New Brunswick, N.J., Milwaukee and San Francisco. New York itself remained a buyer’s market, with 17.7% more sellers than buyers.
Buyers retreat as rates rise
The widening gap came mostly from buyers pulling back. Redfin estimates there were 895,752 homebuyers in the market in October, the fewest in records dating to 2013 and down 2% from September, the sixth straight monthly decline. Mortgage rates averaged 7.33% in October, up from 6.86% in September, which Redfin says priced out more would-be buyers.
Sellers, meanwhile, numbered an estimated 1,526,984, the most since March 2020 and up 0.9% from September, as homes lingered for months without going under contract. Redfin counts sellers as active MLS listings and estimates buyers from its own data on the time between a buyer’s first tour and closing, combined with MLS listings and pending sales. The figures are seasonally adjusted and subject to revision.
Khan framed the shift as a limited opening. “A buyer-friendly market can help make homeownership a little more attainable, even if it doesn’t solve the affordability challenges that have kept many people on the sidelines,” he said, adding that sellers are increasingly competing for buyers’ attention through price reductions and concessions.
The national imbalance is sharper in some segments: Redfin found in a recent report that condo sellers outnumbered buyers by 123%. More metro-level coverage is in our Housing Market section.
