The U.S. condo market has tipped further toward buyers than at any point in Redfin’s records. There were an estimated 123% more condo sellers than buyers nationwide in September, the widest gap in records dating back to 2013, according to a Redfin analysis published Nov. 9. A year earlier the gap was 95.5%.
Put another way, there were more than two condo sellers for every buyer. Redfin estimated 88,460 condo buyers in September, down 2.5% from August and the lowest level in at least 13 years, against 197,248 sellers, up 0.9% from the month before.
A five-year reversal
The numbers are a near-mirror image of the pandemic boom. In September 2021, there were 25.1% fewer condo sellers than buyers, Redfin said. Since then the estimated number of buyers has fallen 54% while the number of sellers has risen 36%.
Pricing has followed. The national median condo sale price fell 0.8% from a year earlier to about $339,000 in September, the first annual decline in five months. About 37% of condos that sold in September had a price reduction, compared with 16% five years earlier, and the typical condo spent 63 days on the market before going under contract, up from 35 days in September 2021.
The condo gap is far wider than the one for houses. Sellers of single-family homes outnumbered buyers by 53.7% in September, which Redfin called a wide gap but less than half the condo figure. The overall market, which includes condos, townhouses and single-family homes, set its own record that month, as we reported in October, when Redfin put the national gap at 63%.
Redfin’s methodology counts sellers from active MLS listings and estimates buyers from its own data on the typical time between a buyer’s first home tour and closing, along with MLS data on active listings and pending sales. It defines a buyer’s market as one with more than 10% more sellers than buyers.
Why condos are weaker
Redfin points to costs that hit condo owners harder than house owners: rising insurance premiums, homeowners association fees and special assessments, particularly in Florida and Texas, where hurricanes and other disasters have pushed up insurance costs. Those expenses fall heavily on first-time buyers, who have traditionally used condos as an entry point but lack equity from a previous sale. Redfin also cited high prices and mortgage rates, noting the weekly average 30-year rate was 7.18% as of Nov. 5.
“For renters who have saved for a down payment and are ready to build equity, these buyer-friendly conditions are an opportunity,” said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin. “Buyers have more options and a better chance of finding a place they like. Although condo prices and HOA fees remain relatively high, buyers have more room to negotiate price cuts, and condos are still generally more affordable than single-family homes.”
The report also notes that monthly costs beyond the purchase price, including HOA dues, insurance and the risk of special assessments for building repairs, can strain buyers’ budgets. Associations themselves are under pressure, too: HOA foreclosures have climbed as associations tighten enforcement, as we have reported.
Texas and Florida lead the glut
Among the 50 most populous metros, San Antonio had the widest condo seller surplus, with an estimated 458.5% more sellers than buyers: 583 sellers against 104 buyers. Houston followed at 321.6%, then Miami at 273.6%, Austin, Texas, at 257.6%, Phoenix at 254.6% and Nashville, Tenn., at 253.3%, according to Redfin’s metro table. Miami, with an estimated 10,234 condo sellers and 2,739 buyers, had the most listings of those six. The Sun Belt accounts for nine of the 10 metros where sellers most outnumber buyers, and Redfin said new construction is adding to the softness there.
Derrell Skillman, a Redfin Premier agent in San Antonio, said buyers there compare total monthly payments, and with many affordable single-family homes available, “many buyers choose a house when the payments are close.” He also pointed to the city’s large military community, saying condo demand slows after the summer permanent change-of-station season, and listed “HOA costs, financing restrictions, builder incentives, softer investor demand” among the factors behind the buyer’s market.
Where condos still sell
Only one of the 50 metros, Nassau County, N.Y., on Long Island, was a seller’s market for condos, with an estimated 1,545 buyers and 1,052 sellers, or about 32% fewer sellers than buyers. Two others had more buyers than sellers but within Redfin’s 10% balanced band: Newark, N.J., and Milwaukee. Chicago, New Brunswick, N.J., and San Francisco were also balanced.
San Francisco’s condo market stands out for its prices: the median sale price there jumped 20% year over year to nearly $1.2 million in September, which Khan ties to the AI boom drawing highly paid workers to the area.
On our reading, the data say condo buyers who can absorb the ongoing costs have unusual leverage, while Sun Belt sellers are competing for a shrinking pool of buyers. A Redfin agent in Miami, Cecilia Cordova, advised sellers who must sell to “list it lower than anybody else in the same building.” For those who can wait, she suggested renting the unit out for now.
