Next week is the first chance to see whether home prices have begun to answer the move in mortgage rates. Two independent price indexes land Tuesday, and the September jobs report closes the week on Friday.
Tuesday, Sept. 29 β the price indexes
The Federal Housing Finance Agency releases its monthly House Price Index at 9 a.m. ET, covering July 2026 data. S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller indices the same morning, also on July figures; the series runs a two-month lag and comes out on the last Tuesday of each month.
Both read a period before the 30-year rate crossed 7%, so neither will capture the last three weeks. What they will show is whether the softening already visible in new construction has reached the resale stock. The Census average sale price for a new house fell 8.8% year over year in August, but new-home prices move with builder incentives and mix; repeat-sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA’s strip that out, which makes them the better test of whether existing-home values are actually declining or merely flattening. Divergence between the two β they weight and cover differently β is itself informative.
Wednesday, Sept. 30
The Mortgage Bankers Association publishes its weekly applications survey, the fastest read on demand. Last week’s edition put the 30-year contract rate at 7.12% with adjustable-rate loans at 9.8% of applications; whether that ARM share keeps climbing is the cleanest available measure of how far borrowers will stretch to hold a payment together.
The Census Bureau’s Advance Economic Indicators Report for August is out at 8:30 a.m. ET, per the bureau’s release calendar.
Thursday, Oct. 1
Census reports Construction Spending for August at 10 a.m. ET. The split inside that number has become the more interesting part of it: residential construction has been contracting while data center and manufacturing work carries the total. Dodge data showed overall starts falling 24.8% in August after July’s megaproject surge unwound, and data centers account for $77.4 billion of this year’s $78 billion commercial construction gain.
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey follows at noon ET, its standing Thursday slot. The 30-year stood at 7.03% on Sept. 24.
Friday, Oct. 2 β the jobs report
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. ET, a date confirmed on the agency’s own release schedule. For housing the line to watch is construction payrolls, and within them the residential building and residential specialty trade categories. Openings in construction jumped 36% earlier this year as data center work pulled crews away from homebuilding; whether that shows up as employment growth or simply as unfilled positions tells you which sector is actually winning the bidding.
The report also sets the near-term rate path. With Fed Governor Michael Barr saying this week that further increases are likely, a hot print would push the 30-year further above 7% and a weak one would be the first real argument against that view since the September meeting.
What is not on the calendar
No Federal Open Market Committee meeting falls next week. Neither do the monthly housing releases that often anchor these previews: the National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales index for September is set for Oct. 20, Census new residential construction β starts and permits β also lands Oct. 20, and new residential sales for September is scheduled for Oct. 27.
That leaves a week whose weight sits at both ends: prices Tuesday, labor Friday, and little in between to change the story.
