The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 7.18% this week, Freddie Mac said on Nov. 5. It was the third weekly decline in a row and leaves the benchmark 22 basis points below the 7.40% it reached in early and mid-October. Borrowers are still paying almost a full percentage point more than a year ago.
According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year rate averaged 7.18% as of Nov. 5, down from 7.24% the week before. A year earlier it averaged 6.22%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.57%, down from 6.60% a week earlier and up from 5.50% a year ago.
Freddie Mac said rates “continued their downward trajectory this week, improving the environment for prospective homebuyers against a backdrop of strong economic growth.”
A slow retreat from a two-year high
The weekly numbers have been coming down in small steps. Freddie Mac’s historical series shows the 30-year rate at 7.40% on both Oct. 8 and Oct. 15. That was its highest level since November 2023, when it reached 7.44%. Since then it has fallen to 7.32% on Oct. 22, 7.24% on Oct. 29 and 7.18% this week.
The run-up before that peak was steep. The 30-year rate’s low for the year was 5.98% on Feb. 26. By early September it had risen to 6.71%, a level RealtyWire reported at the time as a 13-month high. It passed 7% in the week of Sept. 24 and jumped 25 basis points to 7.28% in the week of Oct. 1. Before this fall’s run-up, the last time the weekly average stood at or above this week’s level was May 2, 2024, when it was 7.22%.
On our arithmetic, the drop from 7.40% to 7.18% lowers the monthly principal and interest payment on a $400,000, 30-year loan by about $60, to roughly $2,710. At last year’s 6.22% the same loan would cost about $2,455 a month, or $255 less than today. Those figures exclude taxes and insurance.
What moved in the bond market
Mortgage rates generally track longer-term Treasury yields, and those have come down further than mortgage rates have. Treasury’s daily par yield curve data put the 10-year yield at 5.31% on Oct. 5, according to its October table. By Nov. 4 it was 4.90%, according to the November table. Over roughly the same period, the 30-year mortgage rate fell 22 basis points from its peak while the 10-year yield fell about 41.
Freddie Mac’s survey week runs from Thursday through Wednesday. This week’s reading therefore covers applications from Oct. 29 through Nov. 4, a period that included the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Freddie Mac’s statement did not mention the election. It averages applications across the whole week, so a single week’s survey cannot isolate the effect of any one event.
Demand is still weak
The lower rates come after a sharp drop in borrowing. In a Nov. 4 analysis of Mortgage Bankers Association data, the National Association of Home Builders said total mortgage applications fell 14.1% in October from September on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 39.8% lower than a year earlier. Purchase applications fell 11.9% for the month and refinance applications fell 17.3%. From October 2025, purchase activity was down 17.3% and refinancing was down 58.5%.
NAHB said the MBA’s average 30-year contract rate jumped 35 basis points to 7.4% in October. That pushed more borrowers toward adjustable-rate loans: the ARM share of applications rose 1.5 points to 10.8%, and the average 5/1 ARM rate was 6.4%. RealtyWire reported in September that the ARM share had climbed to 9.8% as fixed rates crossed 7%.
The industry’s outlook has moved with rates. The MBA recently cut its 2027 origination forecast to $1.99 trillion with rates above 7%.
What this week’s reading does and doesn’t change
Three straight declines mean the October spike has partly reversed, but only partly. At 7.18%, the 30-year rate is still above the 7% mark it crossed in late September. It is also about a percentage point above where the year started; the series’ first reading of 2026, on Jan. 8, was 6.16%. And the decline so far is smaller than the drop in the 10-year Treasury yield over the same stretch.
Freddie Mac publishes the survey every Thursday at noon ET; the next reading is due Nov. 12. More rate and lending coverage is on our mortgage page.
