The average U.S. commercial contractor had 8.8 months of work in its backlog as of June 2026, down 0.3 months from May but up 0.1 months from a year earlier, according to the Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC). The reading matters because backlog length is one of the construction industry’s clearest signals of how much work is already lined up before new projects break ground.
ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) is based on a member survey the trade group conducted from June 22 to July 8, 2026. It measures the number of months it would take contractors, on average, to complete all the work currently under contract. A rising reading points to accelerating demand ahead; a falling one suggests contractors are completing existing contracts faster than they are signing new ones.
ABC’s companion Construction Confidence Index, drawn from the same survey, showed a mixed picture for June. Readings for sales and staffing levels increased, while the reading for profit margins declined slightly. All three components remained above the threshold of 50, which ABC says indicates contractors still expect growth over the next six months.
Data center construction remains the clearest driver of demand within the overall figure. ABC said 13% of its member contractors reported having data center work under contract, and those firms reported an average backlog of 11.0 months, compared with 8.5 months for the 87% of members without data center contracts. Larger contractors are far more likely to be working on data centers: 41% of firms with more than $100 million in annual revenue reported data center work, ABC said, compared with 8% of smaller contractors. That divide tracks with a broader wave of data center announcements this year, including a 2-gigawatt data center campus advancing in Texas and OpenAI’s $20 billion data center development plan.
Backlog also varied sharply by region in June. The Middle States was the only region to post monthly backlog growth, according to ABC, while the Northeast saw a sharp contraction, with its backlog down more than a month from a year earlier.
ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu attributed part of the pullback to rising costs. “The effect of rising input prices may be weighing on contractor profitability,” Basu said, according to ABC. He also flagged softening sentiment on margins: “Contractor confidence regarding profit margins fell to a seven-month low in June, though expectations remain above the prevailing level from the second half of 2025,” Basu said. Basu placed the monthly dip in longer-term context, saying, “While backlog declined in June, it’s still longer than any point from September 2023 to April 2026,” according to ABC.
What it means
The verified facts are these: national backlog eased from May but remains slightly above its year-ago level, confidence indicators stayed in growth territory, and data center work continues to carry a meaningfully longer backlog than the rest of the commercial market. Basu’s own framing, as reported by ABC, argues against reading the one-month dip as the start of a broader slowdown, since June’s level still exceeds most of the past two and a half years.
That said, the regional divergence is notable. The Northeast’s sharp contraction alongside the Middle States’ growth suggests the national average may be masking uneven conditions on the ground. RealtyWire’s read: with regional data pointing in opposite directions, it is too early to say whether June marks a turning point or simply monthly noise in an indicator that has held in a narrow range for months. Other segments of the construction pipeline continue to show localized momentum even as the national contractor average softens, including Opus’s start of construction on an 898,500-square-foot spec industrial park in Ohio and a U.S. hotel construction pipeline that grew to 5,975 projects in the second quarter.
A separate, corroborating signal comes from design firms. The American Institute of Architects’ Architecture Billings Index (ABI), which AIA says tends to lead construction spending by roughly nine to 12 months, posted a score of 47.3 in June, an improvement of nearly three points from May but still below the 50-point threshold that separates billings growth from contraction, according to AIA. AIA also reported that architecture firm backlogs fell to 6.3 months in the second quarter, down from 6.6 months in the first quarter. Because architecture billings are an earlier-stage indicator than contractor backlog, a prolonged run below 50 points toward softer construction activity later in 2026 and into 2027, independent of any single month’s contractor data.
What to watch
ABC is expected to release its next Construction Backlog Indicator, covering July data, in August. Industry watchers will be looking at whether the Northeast’s contraction persists or reverses, whether data center work continues to outpace the rest of the commercial sector, and whether contractor confidence in profit margins stabilizes as input costs remain elevated. AIA’s next Architecture Billings Index reading will show whether design activity extends its improvement from June or slips back, a signal that would show up in contractor backlogs several months from now.
