U.S. home prices were 2.1% higher in August than a year earlier, a slightly faster annual pace than July’s 1.9%, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index results released Oct. 27, 2026. But the month itself went the other way: the national index, which is not seasonally adjusted, slipped 0.2% from July, and only two of the 20 tracked metros posted monthly gains.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s separate gauge, released the same morning, pointed in a similar direction on the annual number. The FHFA House Price Index rose 2.4% from August 2025 to August 2026 and 0.3% from July on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Case-Shiller: annual growth up, monthly momentum down
The broader Case-Shiller composites ran ahead of the national index. The 10-City Composite rose 3.6% year over year and the 20-City Composite rose 2.7%, according to Cotality, whose name the index carries alongside S&P Dow Jones Indices.
The monthly picture was weaker than the season normally delivers. Cotality said the 0.2% national decline followed a 0.1% increase in July and fell short of the typical pre-pandemic August gain of 0.3%. Miami (+0.2%) and Chicago (+0.1%) were the only metros with monthly increases; Seattle had the largest monthly drop, at 1.1%.
“In August, home prices rose 2.1% year-over-year but fell 0.2% from the previous month,” Thomas Malone, principal economist at Cotality, said in the release. “When adjusted for inflation, home prices have been mostly flat since 2022, and sales turnover remains at lows last seen during the Great Recession.”
Malone said part of that stems from “seller lock-inβwith record equity and low mortgage rates, homeowners have little incentive to move unless they receive an exceptional offer.” “It also reflects weak underlying demand. After more than three years of slow sales, today’s activity may be the new normal rather than a temporary dip.”
Chicago, New York and Cleveland lead; Seattle trails
Twelve of the 20 metros recorded faster year-over-year appreciation in August than in July. Chicago again posted the strongest annual gain, at 6.7%, followed by New York at 6.2% and Cleveland at 4.3%. Seattle was weakest, with prices down 2.0% from a year earlier.
The geographic split has been the defining feature of this index all year. Cotality’s release contrasted solid annual gains in Chicago, New York, Cleveland and Miami with what it described as persistent annual declines in Seattle, Las Vegas, Dallas, Denver and Tampa. The same divide drove the June results, when the gap between Chicago and Seattle reached nine percentage points; in August it was 8.7 points.
Prices also softened across every price tier. In the 16 metros with tier-level indices, low-priced homes fell 0.2% in August, mid-tier homes 0.3% and high-tier homes 0.4%, according to Cotality. Chicago gained in all three tiers, while San Francisco declined in all three.
FHFA: a wide spread across regions
The FHFA index, which is built from purchase-only data on mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, showed the same uneven geography. Across the nine census divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly changes ranged from a 0.8% decline in New England to a 2.1% gain in the East South Central division. Over 12 months, the Mountain division was up just 0.5%, while the East North Central division β which includes Chicago and Cleveland β was up 4.4%.
FHFA also revised July’s monthly gain down to 0.2% from the 0.3% it originally reported. Its next report, due Nov. 24, 2026, will include monthly data through September and quarterly data through the third quarter.
What the two indexes add up to
On our reading, the August data describe annual price growth that is holding up β and inching higher β on the strength of the Midwest and Northeast, while the monthly figures show a late-summer softening that coincided with rising mortgage rates. Cotality made that argument explicitly, saying widespread monthly dips and rising interest rates indicate “the late-summer slowdown is taking hold,” likely extending modest price declines through the fall and winter, as in the past two years. That is the company’s forecast, not a measured result.
Borrowing costs have kept climbing since the August data were collected. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 6.76% for the week of Sept. 10 and 7.32% for the week of Oct. 22, up from 6.19% a year earlier.
Current home values carry new policy weight as well. A recent executive order tells FHFA to have mortgage insurance canceled based on current home values, as RealtyWire reported β which makes regional appreciation, or the lack of it, more than an academic number for borrowers in the weakest markets.
For July’s results, see RealtyWire’s earlier coverage; more price data is in the Housing Market section.
