U.S. home prices rose 1.2% in the year through September, the weakest September reading since 2011, according to the Home Price Index First American Data & Analytics released Oct. 26. Prices were flat from August to September on the index’s non-seasonally adjusted national measure.
The comparison to 2011 is stark but needs context: in 2011, the report notes, annual prices were falling. In September 2026 they were still rising, just slowly β and the national number masks a sharp regional split, with Texas metros sliding and several Midwestern and Northeastern markets still posting gains of roughly 4.5% to 5%.
The national numbers
- Year over year (September 2025 to September 2026): +1.2%
- Month over month (August to September 2026): 0.0%
- July to August 2026: +0.2%, unrevised from the previous report
The September figure extends a slowdown First American has tracked for months. Its August report showed annual growth of 1.4%, the 17th straight month below the index’s long-term average.
“Annual house price growth dipped to its weakest September pace since 2011, but prices continue to rise across all three price tiers,” said Mark Fleming, First American’s chief economist. “The recent increase in mortgage rates may further constrain affordability and strengthen the rate lock-in effect, limiting both the demand and the supply of homes for sale.”
Fleming argued that the lock-in effect, in which owners with low-rate mortgages stay put, is also what keeps prices from falling nationally. “Homeowners’ ability to remain in their homes and become neither a seller nor a subsequent buyer, rather than sell into a higher-rate market, continues to put a floor under prices,” he said.
Texas leads the declines
Among the 50 largest metro areas First American tracks, five posted year-over-year declines in September, and three of the five were in Texas:
- Dallas: -6.3%
- Austin, Texas: -4.3%
- San Antonio: -2.7%
- Seattle: -2.6%
- Houston: -2.0%
The Texas declines have deepened since the prior report. In August, First American had Dallas down 5.0%, Austin down 3.4% and San Antonio down 2.9%. Seattle and Houston join the list of largest decliners this month, replacing Tampa, Fla., and Denver.
At the other end, the strongest gains remain concentrated in the Midwest and Northeast:
- Chicago: +5.1%
- New York: +4.9%
- Hartford, Conn.: +4.7%
- Cleveland: +4.6%
- Milwaukee: +4.6%
The same five metros led in August. Four of them grew more slowly in September β Chicago eased from 5.5%, Hartford from 5.3%, New York from 5.2% and Milwaukee from 4.8% β while Cleveland accelerated from 4.3%.
Luxury outpaces starter homes
The index splits each large metro’s sales into thirds by price: a starter tier, a mid tier and a luxury tier. In roughly 70% of the top markets it tracks, First American said, luxury-tier prices grew faster than starter-tier prices in September.
“That gap reflects how higher mortgage rates affect buyers differently,” Fleming said. “Buyers at the lower end of the market tend to have less room to absorb higher monthly payments, while luxury buyers are generally less constrained by financing costs. The long-term shortage of affordable homes continues to support starter-home prices, but today’s affordability pressures are limiting how quickly those prices can rise.”
Even so, the metros with the fastest starter-home appreciation are posting healthy numbers at the bottom of the market. Grand Rapids, Mich., led with a 5.5% annual starter-tier gain, followed by Milwaukee (5.2%), Cleveland (5.1%), Philadelphia (5.0%) and Chicago (4.7%). In Chicago and Cleveland, luxury homes rose faster still, at 6.3% and 5.3%.
Reading the report
First American’s index uses a repeat-sales method, comparing the prices of the same properties over time across more than 46 million paired transactions. It covers single-family homes, includes distressed sales but excludes bank-owned (REO) transactions, and is not seasonally adjusted. The most recent months are preliminary and can be revised as more transactions are recorded.
On our reading, the September data describe two different housing markets: in Dallas, Austin and San Antonio, year-over-year price declines are widening, while in Chicago, New York, Hartford, Cleveland and Milwaukee prices are still climbing at roughly four times the national rate. A national figure of 1.2% describes neither well.
First American’s next release is scheduled for the week of Nov. 23, 2026. For more on price trends at the top of the market, see RealtyWire’s coverage of Austin’s luxury price declines and the Housing Market section.
