The number of active homebuyers in the U.S. fell to a record low in July even as a separate Redfin report this week found the first meaningful signs of life in new listings and pending sales in months β a split picture that underscores just how far the housing market has tilted toward buyers who can still afford to shop.
Redfin estimated in a report published Aug. 13 that there were about 966,752 home buyers active in the market in July, down 2.5% from June and the lowest figure on record. Sellers outnumbered buyers by 51.3% nationally, nearly matching December’s record imbalance of 51.8% and up sharply from 47.9% in June. Redfin counted roughly 1,462,921 sellers in the market, itself the lowest count in a year but falling far more slowly than buyer demand.
“Buyers are dropping out faster than sellers, giving the buyers who remain more options,” Redfin senior economist Asad Khan said in the report.
Of the 49 major metros Redfin analyzed, 39 now qualify as buyer’s markets, where sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%. Only six are seller’s markets. Miami is the most buyer-favorable major metro, with 154% more sellers than buyers, followed by Nashville (151%), Houston (130%), San Antonio (116%) and Austin (112%). On the other end, Nassau County, N.Y. has 36% fewer sellers than buyers, the tightest seller’s market Redfin tracked, followed by Newark, N.J. and Providence, R.I. Prices reflect the divide: homes in seller’s markets are up 4.2% year over year, versus 2.3% in buyer’s markets.
A separate Redfin weekly update, also released this week, found new listings rose 1.7% week over week during the four weeks ending Aug. 9 β the largest weekly gain in five months β and were up 2.2% from a year earlier. Pending home sales ticked up 0.4% week over week, though they remain down 1.6% year over year and near their second-lowest level since March. Mortgage-purchase applications rose 3% for the week even as Redfin’s weekly average 30-year mortgage rate climbed to 6.69%, its highest level in more than a year; the daily rate hit 6.74% on Aug. 12.
The median U.S. home sale price was $403,706, up 2.2% year over year, while the median monthly housing payment rose 1.7% to $2,626. Active listings climbed 0.7% week over week to nearly 1.5 million, and homes are sitting on the market a median of 42 days, unchanged from recent weeks.
“Buyers should know that this isn’t 2021 and 2022; the sellers’ list price is a starting point for negotiations,” said Sheryl Wingate, a Redfin Premier agent in Seattle, where pending sales fell 18.5% year over year even as new listings jumped.
Metro-level trends diverged sharply. West Palm Beach, Fla. posted the strongest pending-sales growth (up 16.4% year over year) alongside the second-largest price gain (up 9.0%), while Newark, N.J. and San Francisco also posted price gains above 7.5%. Austin and San Jose, Calif. saw prices fall while new listings rose, a combination Redfin’s data suggests reflects growing inventory outpacing softening demand in those markets.
What it means: Together, the two reports describe a housing market where affordability has pushed a record share of would-be buyers to the sidelines, even as sellers β many of whom are also reluctant to give up low-rate mortgages β are exiting more slowly, keeping inventory elevated. The uptick in new listings and pending sales is a genuinely new signal after a summer of straight declines, but Redfin’s own data shows it is modest and concentrated in specific metros rather than a broad-based turnaround. With mortgage rates still near a one-year high, RealtyWire will be watching whether the early-August improvement in listings holds into the fall selling season or proves to be a one-week blip against the deeper trend of record-low buyer participation.
Related coverage: Pending Home Sales Sink to 5-Month Low as Mortgage Rates Near Yearly High · Home Sales Hit 2-Year Low in July as Texas, Seattle Lead Decline · Brooklyn's Park Slope Tops Redfin's Hottest Luxury Neighborhoods List
