New single-family home sales rose slightly in June, but the U.S. Census Bureau’s own data shows the gain was too small to be statistically meaningful, and prices fell across the board. The Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development released the figures Friday morning.
Sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000 in June, according to the joint Census Bureau/HUD report. That is 1.6% above May’s revised rate of 618,000 and 5.6% below June 2025’s rate of 665,000. Both changes carry wide margins of error — plus or minus 14.8 and 13.2 percentage points, respectively — that include zero, meaning the agencies themselves flag the changes as not statistically distinguishable from no change at all.
Prices keep falling
The median sales price of a new home sold in June was $398,300, down 3.3% from May’s $412,000 and down 2.7% from $409,200 a year earlier. The average sales price fell further, to $475,400, down 9.5% from May.
The price mix also shifted toward cheaper homes. Houses selling for under $300,000 made up 23% of June’s sales, up from 18% in May and the largest share of any month in the data going back through 2025. Builders appear to be leaning into lower price points as buyers contend with mortgage rates that have stayed elevated through the year.
Regional divergence
The national total masks a sharp regional split. Sales in the South climbed to a 412,000 annual rate in June, up 9.9% from May. Sales in the West fell 22.4% to 104,000. The Northeast and Midwest posted smaller moves. As with the national figures, the Census Bureau’s confidence intervals on these regional numbers are wide enough that month-to-month swings should be read cautiously.
Inventory holds steady
An estimated 485,000 new homes stood for sale at the end of June, down slightly from May’s 486,000. At the current sales pace, that represents 9.3 months of supply, essentially flat from May’s 9.4 months and up from 9.0 months a year ago — a sign the market still favors buyers relative to a year earlier, even with June’s uptick in sales.
What it means
Verified facts: new home sales ticked up from May but remain below year-ago levels; median and average prices both fell; inventory and months’ supply are little changed from May and higher than a year ago.
RealtyWire analysis: the growing share of sub-$300,000 sales and falling average price suggest builders are using smaller floor plans, incentives and price cuts to keep sales moving as financing costs weigh on buyer budgets. That is an inference from the data, not a claim in the government report itself.
What to watch: the Census Bureau’s July new home sales report is scheduled for release on August 25. A repeat of June’s South-West divergence, or a further rise in the share of sub-$300,000 sales, would reinforce the affordability-driven pattern seen this month.
