Next week is the one the housing market has been waiting on. The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and it does so with a fresh set of economic projections and a press conference attached. Around that decision sits an unusually dense stretch of housing data: builder sentiment, housing starts and pending sales all land within 48 hours of it.
Monday, Sept. 14
Nothing scheduled on the national data calendar. The week’s setup happens in the bond market rather than in press releases, as traders position ahead of Wednesday.
Tuesday, Sept. 15
The FOMC begins its two-day meeting, according to the Federal Reserve’s published calendar. No statement comes until Wednesday.
In Florida, St. Johns County commissioners hold their final budget adoption hearing for fiscal 2027 at 5:01 p.m. in St. Augustine. It is a local hearing with a national theme: the county has paused about $100 million of capital projects pending the Nov. 3 vote on the state’s property tax amendment, and the budget it adopts is built to survive either outcome.
Wednesday, Sept. 16
The heaviest day of the week, with three items stacked.
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is released at 10 a.m. Eastern. The index measures builder sentiment on current single-family sales, expected sales over the next six months and prospective buyer traffic. With mortgage rates at 6.76% in the latest Freddie Mac survey, builder confidence is the cleanest read available on whether incentives and rate buydowns are still moving inventory.
The Mortgage Bankers Association publishes its weekly applications survey Wednesday morning, its usual slot. Purchase and refinance volumes have been the fastest-moving indicator of how buyers respond to each leg up in rates.
Then the FOMC decision at 2 p.m., followed by the Summary of Economic Projections and the chair’s press conference. The projections are what make this meeting different from a routine one: they show where policymakers individually expect rates to sit at the end of this year and next. After a week in which shelter inflation cooled to 3.0% while headline inflation rose, the dot plot will be read closely for whether housing disinflation is changing anyone’s mind.
Thursday, Sept. 17
Census releases New Residential Construction for August at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, covering building permits, housing starts and completions. Permits are the forward-looking half of that report and the one worth watching if builders are pulling back.
At 10 a.m., the National Association of Realtors publishes August pending home sales. Pending sales count signed contracts, so the August reading is effectively a preview of closings in September and October. It follows existing-home sales that fell to an annual rate of 3.98 million in August.
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey also arrives Thursday, around midday Eastern, its standing weekly slot. It will be the first rate print after the Fed decision.
Friday, Sept. 18
No scheduled national housing release. The week’s data will be digested rather than added to.
What to keep an eye on
Three threads carry into next week without fixed dates. The first is the data center siting fight, which has moved from county commissions to governors’ offices and, in Oregon, into state politics. The second is Florida’s Amendment 3, where county budgets adopted this month are the first concrete measure of what the ballot measure would cost local government. The third is the office-to-residential conversion pipeline, which had a good week in Brooklyn and remains dependent on debt priced off the same Treasury curve the Fed will be talking about on Wednesday.
On our reading, the single number that matters most is the median dot for the end of 2026. Everything in housing next week, from builder sentiment to permits to the Thursday rate survey, will be interpreted through it.
