Florida’s year-long run of rising home sales ended in August. Closed sales of single-family homes fell about 1.5% from August 2025 and condo and townhouse sales slipped just under 2%, Florida Realtors reported Sept. 16. New pending single-family sales also dipped, breaking 12 consecutive months of year-over-year gains.
What did not happen is the part worth noting. Inventory did not build, and prices did not break. Single-family listings were down 13% from a year earlier, condo and townhouse listings down 11.5%. The single-family median sale price rose just over 1% to $415,000 β its sixth straight year-over-year increase β and the condo and townhouse median climbed nearly 3% to just under $298,000.
That combination is unusual for a state that spent 2024 and much of 2025 as the national shorthand for oversupply, particularly in condos. Supply is now tighter than it has been in years: single-family inventory fell below where it stood two years ago, and condo and townhouse inventory moved closer to 2024 levels.
A market settling, not turning
Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor framed the month as a plateau rather than a downturn. “Sales remain relatively stable, inventory continues to tighten, and home prices are holding up well despite mortgage rates that remain challenging for many buyers,” he said.
He put the sales softness squarely on financing costs. Mortgage rates have held between 6% and 7% for much of 2025 and 2026 β not a step change in affordability, but higher than a year ago. “On the margin, the recent rise in rates has been enough to slow home sales growth,” O’Connor said.
Not every indicator weakened. New pending condo and townhouse sales rose slightly in August, extending that measure’s year-over-year growth streak to 13 months β a signal that the segment written off as Florida’s problem child is still finding buyers even as closings lag.
“There’s not much here that suggests Florida’s housing market is suddenly headed in a dramatically different direction,” O’Connor said. He added that affordability pressure is likely to persist, but that the state continues to see renewed migration and movement among buyers and sellers who had been waiting for a return to 2021 conditions.
What changed since July
The contrast with midsummer is sharp. In July, Florida sales rose year over year for an 11th consecutive month, with single-family closings up 5% and condo and townhouse closings up 11%. The statewide single-family median that month was $425,000. August’s $415,000 median is $10,000 below that level month over month, even as it remains higher than a year earlier β the kind of split reading that shows up when a market stops accelerating rather than when it starts falling.
The rate backdrop also shifted underneath the August data. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 6.76% on Sept. 10, near the top of the band O’Connor described, and on Sept. 16 the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate a quarter point, its first increase since July 2023, with projections pointing to at least one more this year. That does not move 30-year mortgage rates directly, but it removes the case for expecting relief from them soon.
The supply question underneath
On our reading, the more durable story in these numbers is the inventory line. Falling listing counts in both property types, in the same month that sales declined, means the drop in supply is not simply sellers being absorbed by buyers β it reflects fewer homes coming to market. For agents, that reshapes the pitch: the negotiating leverage buyers were promised in Florida a year ago is thinner than the headlines about a condo glut would suggest.
The condo picture in particular has been shaped by forces outside the sales cycle, including association assessments, structural-reserve requirements and the insurance market. Florida’s litigation environment has changed materially since the 2022 and 2023 reforms, and the state’s share of national homeowners insurance lawsuits has fallen by roughly half β one of the few cost pressures in the state moving in owners’ favor.
Statewide figures flatten real variation. Conditions differ by county, price band and property type, and Florida Realtors notes that members can compare local sales, inventory and pricing trends through its SunStats tool. More of our coverage is collected on the Housing Market page.
