Capital is getting harder to find for apartment deals even as rents firm up, according to a new industry survey. The National Multifamily Housing Council’s (NMHC) July Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions, released July 23, found that debt and equity financing both worsened over the past three months while sales volume kept pulling back β a signal that tighter multifamily capital markets are colliding with a modest rebound in rent growth and occupancy.
The finding matters because it complicates the narrative around a multifamily recovery. Landlords are seeing firmer fundamentals, but the deals needed to trade, refinance and develop new supply are getting tougher to close, according to NMHC.
What the survey measures
NMHC has run the Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions since the 1990s, polling CEOs and senior executives at apartment ownership, management and finance firms. The July round was conducted July 1β17 and drew 158 responses. NMHC converts the results into four diffusion indexes β Market Tightness, Sales Volume, Equity Financing and Debt Financing β each scored so that 50 represents no change from the prior quarter, readings above 50 signal improvement or tightening, and readings below 50 signal deterioration or loosening.
The trend has moved quickly. Debt financing conditions, in particular, have slid from a reading of 75 in January to 51 in April and 46 in July, according to NMHC’s historical data β a reversal from a period of easier borrowing at the start of the year to one of renewed strain.
The numbers
The Market Tightness Index climbed to 57 in July from 49 in April, moving above the breakeven level of 50. NMHC said that indicates higher rent growth and lower vacancies nationally, with 29% of respondents describing local conditions as tighter than three months earlier, versus 15% who called them looser.
The other three indexes told a different story. The Sales Volume Index fell to 46 from 52 in April, with 27% of respondents reporting lower transaction volume compared with 19% reporting an increase. The Equity Financing Index dropped to 44 from 49, with 19% of respondents saying equity capital had become less available against just 7% who saw more availability. The Debt Financing Index slipped to 46 from 51, as 26% of respondents said it was a worse time to borrow compared with 17% who said conditions had improved.
What it means
NMHC Senior Director of Research and Chief Economist Chris Bruen attributed the tighter market conditions to an improving labor market colliding with a slowdown in new supply. “Job growth picked up somewhat during the first half of the year after a lackluster 2025,” Bruen said. “This, combined with declining apartment deliveries, helped translate to modestly tighter conditions β higher rent growth and lower vacancy rates β over the past three months.”
But Bruen said that improvement hasn’t extended to capital markets. “Even so, rents continued to decrease in many high-supply sunbelt markets,” he said. “At the same time, higher inflation has led to higher interest rates, worsening borrowing conditions, and a corresponding pullback in equity capital.”
Taken together, the results point to a bifurcated market: operators in supply-constrained metros are regaining pricing power, while owners and developers across the board face a costlier, thinner pool of debt and equity to finance acquisitions, refinancings and new construction. For continuing multifamily coverage, RealtyWire will track how that gap between operating fundamentals and capital access evolves through the rest of 2026.
What to watch
NMHC fields the survey quarterly, meaning the next read on apartment capital markets will arrive in October. Analysts will be watching whether the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path stabilizes borrowing costs enough to reverse the slide in the Debt Financing Index, or whether persistent inflation keeps pushing rates β and financing costs β higher.
Sunbelt supply absorption is another variable to track. NMHC’s data show rents still falling in several high-delivery Sunbelt metros even as the national tightness index improves, suggesting any capital-market recovery may be uneven across regions. Sales volume, which reversed an April uptick to decline again in July, will also signal whether buyers and sellers are converging on pricing or continuing to sit on the sidelines. Readers can follow ongoing multifamily finance and deal-flow reporting on RealtyWire as the next quarterly data lands.
