The national home-price number looked almost unchanged in August. Underneath it, the map came apart.
U.S. home prices rose 0.25% from July on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.7% from a year earlier β the fastest annual growth rate in a year β according to the Redfin Home Price Index released Sept. 22. Over the same 12 months, prices fell in five of the 50 most populous metropolitan areas, four of them in Texas.
Month to month, the national index barely moved: 0.25% in August, after 0.26% in July and 0.27% in June. Prices rose in roughly half of the 50 largest metros.
Where prices moved
St. Louis posted the largest monthly gain at 1.1%, followed by Pittsburgh at 1%, and San Antonio, San Jose, Calif., and Baltimore at 0.9% each. Redfin attributed St. Louis’ strength to comparatively affordable prices drawing buyers, and San Jose’s to spillover from the San Francisco market.
The steepest monthly declines were in Austin, Texas, and Charlotte, N.C., both down 0.7%, followed by Milwaukee and Warren, Mich., at 0.6% and Fort Lauderdale, Fla., at 0.5%.
The annual figures are where the gap is widest. San Francisco led the country at 12%, ahead of West Palm Beach, Fla. (10.4%), Chicago (9.2%), Nassau County, N.Y. (8.1%) and Miami (8%). Redfin said San Francisco and Nassau County are two of only five seller’s markets left in the United States, which is producing bidding wars and pushing prices up.
At the other end, Dallas fell 1.4% year over year, the largest decline among big metros. Austin was down 1.1%, Fort Worth 0.7%, San Antonio 0.4% and Seattle 0.1%. Redfin said prices are easing in those Texas markets because they rank among the strongest buyer’s markets in the country, with more than twice as many sellers as buyers.
The San Francisco and Seattle readings show how uneven this cycle has become. The two coastal technology markets are now more than 12 percentage points apart on an annual basis β a divergence we examined when San Francisco pulled away from Seattle earlier this year.
Why prices are still rising in a buyer’s market
The report frames slowing growth as a function of how much bargaining power buyers have accumulated. August was the strongest buyer’s market on Redfin’s record, the company said, with 58% more sellers than buyers nationally β a gap we covered when the figure was published. In parts of the Sun Belt, sellers outnumbered buyers by more than 100%.
That has not turned into falling national prices, and Redfin offers two reasons it has not. Many homeowners hold substantial equity and have little reason to accept a steep discount, which the company says puts a floor under prices. And the luxury segment has stayed hot, driven in part by affluent buyers in Florida and by what Redfin describes as San Francisco’s AI-fueled housing market.
“Slowing price growth is good news for buyers because it means waiting for the right home is less likely to come with a rapidly rising price tag,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics. “Buyers can afford to be choosy and negotiate. Sellers should recognize that pricing too high in today’s market could mean their home sits on the market β and they may eventually have to cut the price. Pricing realistically from the start is a good way to attract attention.”
Reading the index
The Redfin Home Price Index uses the repeat-sales method, comparing what a home sells for against what it previously sold for, and adjusts for seasonality. Redfin describes it as similar to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices but published about a month earlier. The August reading covers the three months ending Aug. 31, 2026, so it is a smoothed quarter of transactions rather than a snapshot of a single month.
That smoothing is worth keeping in mind for agents working the markets at the extremes. A metro showing a 0.9% monthly gain and one showing a 0.7% monthly loss are not describing this week’s negotiating conditions; they are describing closings that were mostly negotiated over the summer. The month-over-month series has now decelerated in each of the last three readings, from 0.27% to 0.26% to 0.25% β a slowdown small enough that it would be easy to over-read from any single month.
The prior month’s index, showing a 0.27% July gain, is here, and more market data is on our housing market page.
