The coming week is the last full data week before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, and it ends with the report that matters most to the rate outlook. Here is what to watch between Monday, Aug. 31 and Friday, Sept. 4.
Tuesday: construction spending
The Census Bureau releases Construction Spending for July at 10 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 1. The series splits private residential, private nonresidential and public construction, and it is the cleanest monthly read on whether the data center and manufacturing buildout is still offsetting the drag from single-family and multifamily work.
Watch the private residential line in particular. Single-family construction spending has been the soft spot in an otherwise resilient series, and July is the month in which new home sales fell 10.5%.
Wednesday and Thursday: the mortgage market checks in
The Mortgage Bankers Association publishes its weekly applications survey Wednesday morning, the first read on whether purchase and refinance demand moved after Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks.
Freddie Mac follows with its Primary Mortgage Market Survey around noon Thursday, Sept. 3. Rates have been sitting near their highs for the year, and the survey is the standard benchmark for where the 30-year fixed settled during the week.
The Institute for Supply Management’s services index also lands Thursday, and the Census Bureau reports July international trade in goods and services at 8:30 a.m. the same day.
Friday: the August jobs report
The main event is the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation for August, at 8:30 a.m. Friday, Sept. 4. For real estate readers there are two numbers inside the headline: construction payrolls, which show whether builders are still shedding or adding trades, and average hourly earnings, which feed the inflation debate directly.
This is the last employment report before the Sept. 15β16 FOMC meeting, which carries an updated Summary of Economic Projections β the quarterly dot plot. Coming after a week in which PCE inflation held at 3.7% and Warsh told Jackson Hole that inflation comes before housing strain, a hot payroll print would narrow the path to relief further.
The corporate calendar
Earnings are thin. The homebuilder and REIT reporting season largely closed out in August, and the next major builder result is not due until mid-September β Lennar’s fiscal third quarter ends Aug. 31, and the company has not yet announced a release date.
Friday is also the start of the Labor Day weekend, with Labor Day falling on Sept. 7 and U.S. markets closed. Expect deal announcements to cluster early in the week and volume to thin out after Thursday.
What we are watching
RealtyWire’s read: the week’s individual releases are unlikely to move rates on their own, but together they set the terms of the September debate. The combination to watch is a weak construction spending print alongside firm wage growth β the pairing that leaves housing under pressure without giving the Fed cover to cut. Continuing coverage is on the Housing Market and Mortgage pages.
