U.S. home prices rose 1.5% over the year through June, an acceleration from May’s 1.2% gain, but continued to lose ground to inflation for a 13th consecutive month, S&P Dow Jones Indices reported Tuesday.
A second federal price measure released the same morning pointed the same direction. The Federal Housing Finance Agency said U.S. house prices rose 2.1% between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026, up 0.3% from the first quarter, with its seasonally adjusted monthly index for June unchanged from May.
Both indexes also agree on something more striking than the national averages: the country’s housing markets are pulling apart along regional lines, and the gap is now close to nine percentage points from top to bottom.
A nine-point spread from Chicago to Seattle
Chicago led all 20 metropolitan areas tracked by the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller indices for a fourth straight month, with prices up 6.9% from a year earlier. New York followed at 4.8% and Cleveland at 4.1%.
At the other end, Seattle recorded the largest annual decline at 2.0%, followed by Las Vegas at 1.9% and Denver at 1.2%.
“This geographic divide reflects a years-long trend, with housing markets in the Northeast and Midwest regaining strength while many Western and Sunbelt markets soften,” said Rebecca Kaufman, associate director of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
The FHFA data, drawn from an entirely different pool of transactions, produced the same map. All nine census divisions posted annual gains, but the East North Central division β Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin β was strongest at 4.5%, while the Pacific division was slowest at barely above zero.
Among states, Alaska led at 8.3%, followed by Vermont at 7.3%, Hawaii at 5.8%, and Illinois and West Virginia at 5.6% each. Prices rose in 46 states and the District of Columbia and fell in four, with New Mexico posting the steepest decline at 1.2%.
Of the 100 largest metropolitan areas, 76 saw prices rise over the four quarters. The strongest was Elgin, Ill., at 7.7%; the weakest was Everett, Wash., down 3.7%.
Nominal gains, real losses
The 1.5% national increase is a nominal figure, and inflation ran well ahead of it. Consumer prices rose 3.5% in June, roughly two percentage points above the home price gain β the 13th straight month in which housing has lost purchasing power in real terms.
“Homeowners and renters alike breathed a sigh of relief in June as inflation cooled to 3.5%,” Kaufman said. “While home prices continue to decline in real terms, lower inflation and firmer nominal home price growth in June helped slow that pace of erosion.”
The narrower composites were stronger than the national figure. The 10-City Composite rose 2.9% annually, up from 2.4% in May, and the 20-City Composite rose 2.1%, up from 1.6%.
On a monthly basis before seasonal adjustment, the national index and the 20-City Composite each gained 0.4% and the 10-City Composite 0.5%. After seasonal adjustment, those gains shrank to 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.3% respectively β a reminder that June sits near the peak of the buying season and that much of the raw monthly increase is calendar, not momentum.
In index terms, the national measure stood at 336.66 in June, 9.3% above its June 2022 peak and 15.0% above the January 2023 trough.
Kaufman tied the subdued national picture to financing costs, noting that 30-year mortgage rates held near 6.5% in June. “As financing costs are kept high for prospective buyers, current homeowners remain reluctant to give up the low mortgage rates secured in prior years,” she said. Pending sales have reflected that drag, sinking to a five-month low as rates approached their yearly high.
S&P DJI said no valid June update for Detroit was available because of continuing transaction recording delays at the Wayne County recording office, though there was enough data for a May figure.
What it means
The verified facts are that both indexes show modest nominal appreciation, both show acceleration from the prior reading, and both place the Midwest and Northeast at the top and the West at the bottom. The attributed interpretation, from S&P’s Kaufman, is that the divide is a years-long structural trend rather than a monthly wobble.
RealtyWire’s analysis: the corroboration matters more than either number on its own. The two indexes measure different things β FHFA’s flagship series covers only purchase mortgages bought or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, excluding cash sales and loans above conforming limits, while Case-Shiller captures the broader transaction pool including the high end. When two series built on different data land on the same geography, the regional split is unlikely to be a methodological artifact.
Both readings also arrive with a lag. Case-Shiller reports on a two-month delay and reflects a three-month average of closings, so June’s index largely captures contracts signed in spring. The May report showed the same leaders and laggards in a slightly weaker national market.
What to watch: whether the Midwest’s lead survives the autumn. FHFA’s next monthly report, with data through July, is scheduled for Sept. 29, and its next quarterly report for Nov. 24. Further national price and sales coverage is collected on RealtyWire’s Housing Market page.
