U.S. home prices barely budged in July, rising just 0.27% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis β essentially flat from June’s 0.28% gain β even as annual price growth hit its fastest pace in a year, according to Redfin’s latest home price index.
Prices rose 3.4% from a year earlier, the fastest annual growth rate in 12 months, Redfin reported Tuesday. The Redfin Home Price Index uses a repeat-sales methodology similar to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller indices to track how the same homes’ prices change over time, but is reported roughly a month earlier than Case-Shiller. July’s figures cover the three months ending July 31.
Redfin attributed the flat monthly reading to a split market: buyers are still contending with mortgage rates that sat in the mid-to-high 6% range all summer, which is capping demand, while a persistent surplus of sellers over buyers is limiting how much prices can rise. At the same time, strength in the luxury segment is propping up the national average. “Despite the sluggishness of the overall housing market, home-price growth is proving to be surprisingly resilient,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research. “That’s partly because today’s market is split in two: Many everyday buyers are constrained by affordability challenges, while wealthy buyers have the means to keep competing for desirable homes. That upper-end strength is helping prop up prices even as the broader market cools, giving buyers some bargaining power.”
Prices rose in 29 of the 49 major metros Redfin analyzed on a month-over-month basis. San Francisco led with a 1.5% monthly gain, followed by Oakland, Calif. (1.3%), and Pittsburgh, Pa., and New York, N.Y. (both 1%). Redfin tied the Bay Area’s strength to AI-industry hiring driving homebuying demand, while affluent buyers paying ultra-high prices for luxury homes are lifting West Palm Beach, Fla., which posted a 0.9% monthly gain and an 8.9% annual increase. On an annual basis, San Francisco posted the steepest increase nationally at 13.3%, followed by Chicago, Ill. (9.5%), Nassau County, N.Y. (9.4%), Milwaukee, Wis. (9%) and West Palm Beach.
Prices fell in 20 of the metros tracked, with Texas markets making up much of the weak end of the list. Montgomery County, Pa., posted the steepest monthly decline at 1.1%, followed by Fort Worth, Texas (-0.8%), Austin, Texas (-0.6%), Miami, Fla. (-0.6%) and Virginia Beach, Va. (-0.6%). On an annual basis, San Antonio, Texas, posted the largest decline at 2.1%, followed by Fort Worth (-1.3%), Dallas (-1%), Austin (-1%) and Phoenix, Ariz. (-0.9%). Redfin said prices are falling in those metros because sellers outnumber buyers roughly two to one, forcing sellers to cut prices or accept negotiated discounts to attract offers.
What it means: Verified facts: national home-price growth was essentially flat month over month in July while annual growth accelerated to a one-year high, and the metro-level picture split sharply between AI-hub and luxury-heavy markets posting gains and Texas metros posting declines. Redfin’s attributed interpretation is that a bifurcated buyer pool β affordability-constrained households versus cash-flush luxury buyers β explains why national prices remain resilient even as the broader market cools. RealtyWire’s analysis: the continued divergence between Sun Belt oversupply markets like Texas and supply-constrained, high-income metros like San Francisco suggests any national price narrative increasingly obscures more than it reveals about local conditions.
The report builds on Redfin’s recent findings that Austin’s luxury home prices have posted the nation’s steepest drop and that July home sales fell to a two-year low, led by Texas and Seattle markets. It also follows Redfin data showing the income needed to afford a typical home has held near a record $110,000 even as affordability challenges persist nationally.
Beyond the metros at either extreme, most of the index showed modest, low-single-digit annual gains. Markets including Atlanta, Ga. (1.1%), Denver, Colo. (0.3%), Las Vegas, Nev. (0.8%) and Seattle, Wash. (0.6%) posted only slight year-over-year increases, reflecting the broader national trend of prices holding largely steady rather than swinging sharply in either direction. Redfin’s index methodology, which tracks repeat sales of the same homes rather than relying on median sale prices, is designed to strip out changes in the mix of homes selling in a given month β making it a closer read on true price appreciation than headline median-price figures that can be skewed by shifts in which homes happen to sell.
