The week of Nov. 16-20 is the heaviest stretch of housing data before Thanksgiving. Builder sentiment, housing starts and contract signings all arrive on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the Federal Reserve releases minutes from the October meeting it ended in a split vote. Together they give the first broad read on whether October’s mortgage-rate spike carried into November, three weeks before the Fed’s Dec. 8-9 decision.
Builders go first
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is due Tuesday, Nov. 17, according to NAHB’s release schedule. The October reading was 29, the lowest since June 2012, with 43% of builders cutting prices. The November survey covers a month in which mortgage rates eased slightly from their mid-October peak but stayed above 7%. Builders also face tight credit: NAHB said Nov. 13 that lending for land and construction tightened for a 19th straight quarter.
The Census Bureau’s October retail sales report comes out the same morning at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to the bureau’s 2026 economic indicator calendar. Its building materials and garden category is the piece most closely tied to housing.
Starts, pending sales and Fed minutes on Wednesday
Wednesday, Nov. 18, is the busiest day. Census publishes October housing starts and building permits at 8:30 a.m. In September, starts ran at a 1.221 million annual rate, 5.2% below August and 7.4% below a year earlier, and permits were at 1.4 million. Census attaches wide confidence intervals to monthly starts, so a single month’s move can be noise.
At 10 a.m., the National Association of Realtors reports its October pending home sales index, according to NAR’s 2026 release schedule. Pending sales track signed contracts, so they lead closings by one to two months. That matters after NAR said Nov. 12 that closed sales fell to a 3.75 million pace in October, the slowest since August 2010. The pending index will show whether contract activity slid further during October’s rate peak.
At 2 p.m., the Fed releases minutes of the Oct. 27-28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, according to the Fed’s November calendar. The committee held its target range at 3.75% to 4%, with Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissenting in favor of a quarter-point hike. The minutes may show how many other participants leaned toward tightening before the October inflation report, which our CPI coverage detailed.
Home Depot, Lowe’s and the remodeling read
Home improvement earnings bracket the data. The Home Depot will host its third-quarter earnings call on Tuesday, Nov. 17, and Lowe’s hosts its third-quarter call on Wednesday, Nov. 18. Their comments on big-ticket projects and professional contractor demand are a useful gauge of how owners who are staying put, many locked into low first-mortgage rates, are spending on their homes.
Fed speakers and mortgage rates
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh gives opening remarks Monday, Nov. 16, at the Fed’s Productivity and Jobs Task Force Conference in San Francisco, the Fed’s calendar shows. Governor Lisa D. Cook speaks Friday, Nov. 20, on “The U.S. Economy in Global Context” in Santiago, Chile. Remarks bearing on the December decision would move Treasury yields, which mortgage rates track more closely than the Fed’s own rate.
Freddie Mac’s weekly survey normally comes out Thursday. The Nov. 12 reading put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.11%, the fourth straight weekly decline. Next week’s survey will cover a window that includes the starts and pending sales reports.
On our reading, the week’s question is whether October was the low point or a step down. If builder sentiment and pending sales stabilize while rates ease, the market has a floor to work from. If both fall again, the Fed would be weighing a December hike against a housing market that is still weakening.
