Just over one in five U.S. mortgages now carries an interest rate of 6% or higher, but the low-rate loans that have kept homeowners in place are barely shrinking. That is the finding of a Realtor.com analysis of second-quarter 2026 data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s National Mortgage Database, published Oct. 22.
As of the second quarter, 22.5% of outstanding mortgages had a rate of 6% or more, up 0.3 percentage point from the first quarter and 2.3 points from a year earlier. Another 12.0% fell between 5% and 6%. That still left 65.6% of mortgages below 5% and about 78% below 6%. The report, by Realtor.com’s Hannah Jones, is titled “The Slow Unlock Stalls as Rates Climb.”
The rate distribution barely moved
The quarter-to-quarter shifts were small in every bucket, according to the report:
- Below 3%: 19.2% of mortgages, down 0.1 point from the first quarter and down from a peak of about 24.6% in early 2022
- 3% to 4%: 29.9%, down 0.2 point, still the largest single group
- 4% to 5%: 16.5%, down 0.1 point
- 5% to 6%: 12.0%, up 0.2 point
- 6% and above: 22.5%, up 0.3 point, the biggest change of any bucket
Taken together, 49.1% of outstanding mortgages still have rates of 4% or lower. The sub-3% loans date almost entirely to one stretch: Freddie Mac’s 30-year average fell below 3% in July 2020 and generally stayed there through September 2021. The report notes that it was the only time since the data series began in 1971 that rates went below that level.
The report describes what little movement there is as coming mostly from “swappers” trading a lower rate for a higher one, or from owners paying off their loans, “not from any broad thaw in the market.”
Mortgages are getting older
Loan age shows the same pattern. A record 42.8% of outstanding mortgages are four to seven years old, meaning they were originated between July 2019 and June 2022, the period of the pandemic refinancing boom. That is up from 40.8% the previous quarter and the highest share in the data’s history, according to Realtor.com. Only 27.8% of mortgages were written in the four years since mid-2022. The report says that share was about six in 10 in 2023.
Historically, the youngest loans, those one to four years old, made up the largest share of the market as new buyers bought in. Several years of near-record-low home sales and few refinances have reversed that. “A market that once turned over rapidly has become increasingly static,” the report says.
The effect is visible in transaction data. Pending home sales fell in every major metro in September, and the Mortgage Bankers Association cut its 2027 origination forecast as rates held above 7%.
Rates have moved the wrong way since June
The data runs only through June, when rates were in the mid-6% range. Rates have risen since. Realtor.com said rates “recently surged to 7.4%,” which it said has reduced buyers’ purchasing power and slowed the market. Home listing prices fell 1.4% in September as active listings edged higher. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% as of Oct. 22, 2026, down from 7.40% the week before and up from 6.19% a year earlier.
Realtor.com expects rates to stay above 6% over the next year, which means almost every new mortgage will land in the 6%-plus bucket. To estimate where the market will be by mid-2027, it modeled two extremes, both assuming 3.1 million new purchase loans over the year, matching 2025’s purchase originations in the FHFA data, and no refinances. In one, every new loan pays off a sub-6% mortgage. In the other, every new loan is added to the total and nothing is paid off.
Under those assumptions, the 6%-plus share would climb from about 22.6% (after adjusting the second-quarter figure for late-reported loans) to between 26.9% and 28.5% by the second quarter of 2027. Realtor.com said that would be the highest share in more than a decade. In the higher scenario, 6%-plus loans would overtake the 3%-to-4% bucket as the largest single group. Even then, it estimates 72% to 73% of mortgages would still carry rates below 6%, and about 45% to 46% would be below 4%.
What it means for listings
The analysis supports a point agents already know: inventory recovers only as fast as owners decide to give up their low-rate loans. Realtor.com said life events such as having children, changing jobs or divorce keep some sales happening regardless of rates. It also said easing inflation and lower mortgage rates would be the main drivers of more sellers listing.
The report’s conclusion: “the unlock is real, but it’s slow.” Rates below 6% would push new loans into the 5%-to-6% bucket and, in Realtor.com’s words, “make the trade-up math a bit less painful.” With 30-year rates above 7% in October, that is not happening yet. In the meantime, some borrowers are turning to adjustable-rate mortgages, which hit a 14% share of September locks in Optimal Blue’s data. More is in RealtyWire’s mortgage coverage.
